Current Pending Submissions: What Are My Chances?

One thing I spend far too much time doing is poring over my pending submissions on Duotrope and trying to divine my chances of publications by studying the market in question, my past history with said market, how long the story has been under consideration, and a myriad of other rejectomantic factors. I thought I’d share that process with you in more detail (inflict it on you might be a better way to say it), show you my current pending roster, and tell you what I think my chances of publication might be for each story.

To kick things off, here are the nine stories I currently have pending on Duotrope.

The pending roster above includes a mix of short stories and flash fiction, originals and reprints, pro and semi-pro markets, and even a sim-sub and a multi-sub. It really covers just about all the common submissions scenarios, which is why I thought it would be a good one to share and talk about. Below, I’m going to go over each submissions, tell you a bit about the story and the market, and employ a little rejectomancy to determine my chances of publication. At the end of each entry, I’ll predict my chances of an acceptance with a percentage based on the markets average acceptance rate (per the Duotrope or The Submission Grinder). Now, this is all in fun, and there are, of course, far too many factors and nuances to a story getting accepted to do something as silly as putting an actual number on it. Additionally, as usual, my rejectomantic analysis should be taken with a large grain of salt. It’s fun, but it’s best not to get too caught up in such things. Mostly, I just want to show you a little slice of my submission life and how I tend to think about my stories and the markets I send them to. 

Okay, let’s dive in. Just an FYI, the listed acceptance rates for each market are taken from either Duotrope or The Submission Grinder and are only ballpark figures, but they’re a good reference point to start with. 

1) “Time Has No Memory” to Utopia Science Fiction (8 cents per word/2.5% accpt. rate)

The only sim-sub this time around (both markets accept them, of course), “Time Has No Memory” is a short story that has definitely been around the block. It’s one of my most rejected pieces, though it frequently makes it onto short lists and has accumulated an impressive number of close-but-no-cigar rejections. You might have noticed the three lines next to the red P on under Status on my Duotrope pending roster. That means the story has been held for further consideration, which is always good, though nothing new for this poor oft-rejected story. That said, this is my first submission to Utopia Science Fiction Magazine, so other than what info I can glean from Duotrope and the Submission Grinder, I don’t really know what to expect. The story seems like a good fit for them, and they liked it enough to pull it out of the slush pile for a closer look, but with this story and all its heart-breaking rejections, it’s hard to get my hopes up too high. Still, one must try to be optimistic, so I’ll put my chances of an acceptance at 7.5%, roughly three times their listed acceptance rate on The Submission Grinder.

2) “Time Has No Memory” to Intergalactic Rejects Anthology (8 cents per word/NA)

The other market this much beleaguered story is currently on submission to is a neat little anthology for stories that have been rejected at least three times (love that). Well, “Time Has No Memory” certainly qualifies, and since I believe it’s a solid story, this felt like a good fit. Now, because this is a one-and-done anthology, there’s not much data. So, that leaves me with nothing more than my rejectomantic instincts to divine my chances of publication. The only real piece of info I have to go on is that the market rejected a bunch of stories about about a month ago and has been silent since. Because my story has been under review for 96 days, I think it’s somewhat reasonable to surmise it made it through the first round of review. That feels right(ish), but I have no hard evidence to go on. So, based on that scant information, I’d put my acceptance chances at, I don’t know, 5%? Sure, let’s go with that. 🙂

3) “Care and Fiending” and “The Other Side of Empty” to The Sprawl Mag (2 cents per word/4.44% accpt. rate)

Another new-to-me market, The Sprawl Mag is also just a new market in general. They’ve put out two issues so far, and since they publish speculative flash fiction, they appear to be a possible fit for my work. You’ll notice that I have two entries in my pending roster for this publisher, and that’s because they allow up to two stories per submission. Not many markets do that, and I’m always appreciative when I can fire off a multi-sub. The stories I sent them are wildly different in style and tone, so I’ve cast a bit of a wide net, and hopefully, even if both get rejected, I’ll learn which type of story they prefer (through a personal rejection or the like) and be better prepared for my next subs. I’m at 93 days out, which is well past their average response time for both acceptances and rejections, but because they’ve only put out two issues, it’s a very small sample size, and it’s likely the number of subs they’ve received (as authors find about a new paying market) has increased, as have their response times (understandably). As for my acceptance chances, I’ll go ahead and put it at their standard acceptance rate of 4.44%. 

4) “Trapping Disaster” to Uncanny (10 cents per word/1.12% accpt. rate)

Well, every round of submissions should include one Hail Mary, right? Calling my chances of getting accepted at Uncanny slim would be quite the understatement, but, hey, to crib a boxing term, everyone’s got a puncher’s chance. The story I sent them is another of my frequently final-round-rejected pieces, and it’s been held at some other top-tier magazines. So, who knows? I will say that 46 days is the longest Uncanny has held one of my pieces, but seeing as their editor posted on social media they they received over 3,000 submission in their last submission window, I’m putting next to no stock in that particular bit of data. My chances here? I’ll be optimistic and go with the Submission Grinder’s listed 1.12% for this market. 🙂

5) “The Smile Price” to Pseudopod (8 cents per word/1.14% accpt. rate)

Pseudopod is the only market in this current roster of pending subs that’s actually published me before. Way back in 2016, they published my vampire baseball story “Night Games,” and though I’ve made it out of the slush pile a handful of times after that, I’ve yet to place another story with them. “The Smile Price” is a reprint, which audio markets like Pseudopod tend to welcome more than print markets. I sold this story to Black Cat Mystery Magazine last year, and it’s a crime/supernatural horror mashup. I think it’s one of the better stories I’ve written in the last couple of years, and it might be something Pseudopod would be interested in. Now, normally, with a market that’s published me before, I’d say my chances were better than the average bear, but it’s been so long I think I’m pretty much back to par. At 42 days out, I’m still well within their average response time for a rejection, and I know from past experience that if the story does make it to the next round, they’ll send me a further consideration letter. So, I’d put my acceptance chances at Pseudopod’s standard rate of 1.14%.

6) “On the Stairs” to Apex Magazine (10 cents per word/1.61% accpt. rate)

I’ve sent a lot of stories to Apex (including FOUR of the stories currently on this list), and though I’ve managed to climb out of the slush pile a few times and advance to the next round of consideration, I’m still 0 for 24. The monthly flash fiction contest is a relatively new thing, and this is only my second submission there. Each contest is themed, and this time, it just so happened that I had a flash piece that fit the theme perfectly, so I sent it off. Interestingly, this is a story I wrote years ago and promptly forgot about, and I only recently discovered it again while I was going through some files on my hard drive. It’s one of those pieces that I think I dismissed as just okay initially, but with a fresh read some four years later, I liked it quite a bit. Let’s hope the editorial staff at Apex likes it, too. Like Uncanny and Pseudopod, I’d put my chances dead even with everyone else, so 1.61%. 

7) “Signs and Wonders” to Translunar Travelers Lounge (3 cents per word/3.8% accpt. rate)

This is my second submission to Translunar Travelers Lounge, and the last time I submitted, I received a further consideration letter followed by a final-round rejection. Interestingly, that story is the story currently under consideration at Uncanny, “Trapping Disaster.” Anyway, since I got so close with my last submission, when Translunar opened up again for submissions, I jumped at the chance to send them another. This time, the story is “Signs and Wonders”, which is similar in style and tone to “Trapping Disaster”, so I like my chances here a little more than maybe any submission on this list. That might be overly optimistic, but I have a good feeling. Yeah, I know; cue the form rejection the very second after this post goes live. So, in the spirit of unbridled positivity, I’m gonna go ahead and put my chances at an even 7%, double their average acceptance rate. 

8) “What Hope’s Worth” to Small Wonders (8 cents per word/3.97% accpt. rate)

Small Wonders is an awesome speculative flash fiction market that’s relatively new but is consistently publishing excellent stories. I’ve submitted to them I handful of times, and my first submission, a very morose, even downright grim story called “Mr. Myth Killer” ended up with a final-round, close-but-no-cigar rejection. Galvanized by that near miss, I’ve sent them  five more submissions, a mix of reprints and original, all with that same dark tone. The story they’re currently reviewing, “What Hope’s Worth”, is also pretty damn dark, and if this one doesn’t make the cut, then it might be time to change it up and send them something a tad more positive next time. Anyway, despite the near miss with my first submission, I’d put my chances here at dead average. Oh, what the hell, I’ll round up to 4%. 

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So there you have it, a look behind the curtain of my submission process and roster. Again, don’t put too much stock in my rejectomantic evaluations. They really are more for fun (and to maintain my sanity) than anything else. That said, you should keep an eye on your history with a publisher in order to fine tune your submission targeting. If a story with a particular style and tone gets close with a market, sending them another like that makes a lot of sense. Just remember; the data you can see about a market’s acceptance decisions is just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot going on behind the scenes that probably guides those decisions more than anything. So, write the best story you can, match it with a market to the best of your ability, fire it off, and cross your fingers. 🙂